Can statisticians tell us who won a questionable election? Arlene Ash, Ph.D.
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The 2006 election in Florida's 13th Congressional district was won by the Republican candidate by 369 votes, out of about 240,000. But an examination of the ballots revealed a disturbing discrepancy: In the Republican-leaning half of the district, about 3,000 ballots recorded no choice in the Congressional race (a normal number of so-called undervotes). In the Democratic part, however, 18,000 ballots recorded no choice in the race, apparently because of a problematic ballot design. A statistical analysis showed that with a properly designed ballot, the Democrat would have won.
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